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2021-2022 Schedule 4 months 4 days ago #437436

  • Mean Gene
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lawmanfan post=437379 wrote:

Mean Gene post=437376 wrote:

fordham96 post=437363 wrote: Remember people talked about what the difference was with Rutgers and SJU last year.  Not much maybe RU's win over Illinois was a bit better than SJU win over Nova.  But the ultimate difference was Rutgers beat Syracuse in a non-conference game.

UCONN beat USC in a non-conference game.

BIG difference from SJU's best non conference win which was probably Boston College.


Agreed Fordham, the only way for us to make sure we get in the tournament with this weak schedule is to win all of our OOC games beating Kansas and Indiana or winning the Big East Tournament Championship. If we don’t do either of those things our weak SOS will come back to haunt us. Like you said, we won 10 Big East games last year and it did nothing for us.


 


So you don't think that going, say, 10-1 in non-conference play with a loss to what will be a top-5 Kansas team and 11-9 in the conference for an overall record of 21-10 and finishing in 4th place in the regular season would make SJU an NCAA team? 

Interesting, but I think wrong.


Lawman, we finished fourth in the league last season and we were not really close to being chosen for the tournament. The NCAA Selection Committee has shown that they will take a team with a lesser record and a strong schedule over a team with a better record and weak schedule. Under your scenario I believe we are probably a bubble team due to weak SOS. It also depends how much we beat the lesser team on our schedule by. There’s that 10 point criteria. We need to beat all those garbage teams we are playing by 10 points or more to even have a chance of those games meaning anything. And, God forbid we lose one. We don’t have enough tough high quality games later on to make up for it. To start the season I believe the Big East only has one ranked team and that’s Villanova.
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2021-2022 Schedule 4 months 4 days ago #437440

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It's obviously hard at this time to predict a lot of this. Do we beat Indiana on the road? If Indiana makes the tournament that is a very big win. How do the other Big East teams play in out of conference games? Last year was a really bad year for the conference if this year is better some of the 12 hypothetical wins could be bigger than last year. Maybe we beat Pitt and they have a better year than expected.

I agree that another game against a power conference or top 100 would be helpful but most importantly we have to win some games against the good teams we do play. We don't know how good this team is going to be. If it is as good as many think, I am confident we will get into the NCAA tournament. If it is marginally better than last year we will be on the bubble but hopefully in a better spot. If it doesn't gel well then it won't matter. 

It's an interesting conversation but all we can do is hope that the team steps up and has a strong season. 
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2021-2022 Schedule 4 months 4 days ago #437443

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Mean Gene post=437436 wrote:

 


Lawman, we finished fourth in the league last season and we were not really close to being chosen for the tournament. The NCAA Selection Committee has shown that they will take a team with a lesser record and a strong schedule over a team with a better record and weak schedule. Under your scenario I believe we are probably a bubble team due to weak SOS. It also depends how much we beat the lesser team on our schedule by. There’s that 10 point criteria. We need to beat all those garbage teams we are playing by 10 points or more to even have a chance of those games meaning anything. And, God forbid we lose one. We don’t have enough tough high quality games later on to make up for it. To start the season I believe the Big East only has one ranked team and that’s Villanova.


My mild disagreement would be that (1) IMO we were one win away from an NCAA bid last season; and (2) I believe (though I could be wrong) that the number of Big East teams in history that have won 21 games and NOT gone to the NCAA tournament is zero.

However I agree that past performance is no guarantee of future results and also that the schedule may not help seeding depending on how the Big East stacks up against other conferences overall.  Though it usually ends up ranked 2nd or 3rd and the only reason the other highly-ranked conferences get more bids is because they're larger.
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2021-2022 Schedule 4 months 4 days ago #437458

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Mean Gene post=437436 wrote:

lawmanfan post=437379 wrote:

Mean Gene post=437376 wrote:

fordham96 post=437363 wrote: Remember people talked about what the difference was with Rutgers and SJU last year.  Not much maybe RU's win over Illinois was a bit better than SJU win over Nova.  But the ultimate difference was Rutgers beat Syracuse in a non-conference game.

UCONN beat USC in a non-conference game.

BIG difference from SJU's best non conference win which was probably Boston College.


Agreed Fordham, the only way for us to make sure we get in the tournament with this weak schedule is to win all of our OOC games beating Kansas and Indiana or winning the Big East Tournament Championship. If we don’t do either of those things our weak SOS will come back to haunt us. Like you said, we won 10 Big East games last year and it did nothing for us.



 


So you don't think that going, say, 10-1 in non-conference play with a loss to what will be a top-5 Kansas team and 11-9 in the conference for an overall record of 21-10 and finishing in 4th place in the regular season would make SJU an NCAA team? 

Interesting, but I think wrong.


Lawman, we finished fourth in the league last season and we were not really close to being chosen for the tournament. The NCAA Selection Committee has shown that they will take a team with a lesser record and a strong schedule over a team with a better record and weak schedule. Under your scenario I believe we are probably a bubble team due to weak SOS. It also depends how much we beat the lesser team on our schedule by. There’s that 10 point criteria. We need to beat all those garbage teams we are playing by 10 points or more to even have a chance of those games meaning anything. And, God forbid we lose one. We don’t have enough tough high quality games later on to make up for it. To start the season I believe the Big East only has one ranked team and that’s Villanova.

That 10 point criteria exists for margin of victory.  However, (unless its been changed) there is no cap for the offensive and defensive efficiencies portion of the formula.  So, a 30 point win will be worth more than a 10 point win regardless of the 10 point MOV cap.  Also, our pace of play results in a greater number of possessions per game.  So, you have to win by a larger margin in order to maintain pace with a team that plays slower and has less possessions per game.

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2021-2022 Schedule 4 months 3 days ago #437485

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weathermannyc post=437458 wrote:

Mean Gene post=437436 wrote:

lawmanfan post=437379 wrote:

Mean Gene post=437376 wrote:

fordham96 post=437363 wrote: Remember people talked about what the difference was with Rutgers and SJU last year.  Not much maybe RU's win over Illinois was a bit better than SJU win over Nova.  But the ultimate difference was Rutgers beat Syracuse in a non-conference game.

UCONN beat USC in a non-conference game.

BIG difference from SJU's best non conference win which was probably Boston College.


Agreed Fordham, the only way for us to make sure we get in the tournament with this weak schedule is to win all of our OOC games beating Kansas and Indiana or winning the Big East Tournament Championship. If we don’t do either of those things our weak SOS will come back to haunt us. Like you said, we won 10 Big East games last year and it did nothing for us.




 


So you don't think that going, say, 10-1 in non-conference play with a loss to what will be a top-5 Kansas team and 11-9 in the conference for an overall record of 21-10 and finishing in 4th place in the regular season would make SJU an NCAA team? 

Interesting, but I think wrong.


Lawman, we finished fourth in the league last season and we were not really close to being chosen for the tournament. The NCAA Selection Committee has shown that they will take a team with a lesser record and a strong schedule over a team with a better record and weak schedule. Under your scenario I believe we are probably a bubble team due to weak SOS. It also depends how much we beat the lesser team on our schedule by. There’s that 10 point criteria. We need to beat all those garbage teams we are playing by 10 points or more to even have a chance of those games meaning anything. And, God forbid we lose one. We don’t have enough tough high quality games later on to make up for it. To start the season I believe the Big East only has one ranked team and that’s Villanova.

That 10 point criteria exists for margin of victory.  However, (unless its been changed) there is no cap for the offensive and defensive efficiencies portion of the formula.  So, a 30 point win will be worth more than a 10 point win regardless of the 10 point MOV cap.  Also, our pace of play results in a greater number of possessions per game.  So, you have to win by a larger margin in order to maintain pace with a team that plays slower and has less possessions per game.

I think the 10 point thing is gone, but yes efficiency still counts, so if anything, we need to run up scores even more.

But, like you said, we will play a faster pace.  Yes, we need to be efficient, but it also means a bit more margin for error.

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2021-2022 Schedule 4 months 3 days ago #437490

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The only thing proven is that the committer Will take any Big Ten team and overrate them so the entire league gets in. ;-).  The schedule isn’t awful and last year was an odd year with some leagues being overrated vastly and others struggling.  Look at our league alone that was ranking teams higher that played less games but a higher winning percentage without even playing some of the toughest games?  Hopefully that doesn’t happen again this year but I wouldn’t use last year as the norm. 
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2021-2022 Schedule 4 months 3 days ago #437491

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In my opinion, the schedule will not preclude or severely handicap our ability to make the tournament.  However, I also agree that one more Quad-1 opportunity would have been ideal. 
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2021-2022 Schedule 4 months 2 days ago #437520

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I purposely avoided this thread for a few days and it is the same arguments back and forth. I'll see you again in a week. In the meantime, please behave 
Ubi Caritas, Where charity and love are, God is there.

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2021-2022 Schedule 4 months 2 days ago #437521

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There's such a catch 22 with this schedule and this roster because of this circus of a transfer portal. With the amount of transfers, and freshmen you want them to have time to gel in game situations so ideally games vs Miss Valley St are good ways to gauge chemistry and talent. On the other hand, the talent level here, especially with Julian back, should be high enough that those assessments can be made vs higher end talent like URI and St Bonny etc. Then you have the argument that these non conf games (sans Kansas and Indiana) are meaningless when it comes to end of season tournament ranking unless you lose. Thus, giving you ZERO margin for error. You can't lose a single game that isn't Indiana and Kansas, and more so you basically HAVE to win one of them or else. Then you also need to have a really strong Big East season to make up for the non conf schedule, like 12-8 minimum in the Big East play. It's tough...but ultimately this schedule is atrocious and 1-2 more top 150 teams would have done wonders for this group overall. At this point it doesn't matter, we need to just win every game and go from there. 
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2021-2022 Schedule 4 months 2 days ago #437530

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Bottom line, we should make the tournament this year.  It would be a travesty if we did not make the tourney this year.  I feel like our team is as strong as it has been in a long time.  It is well balanced, although lots of new players.  I am more optimistic then usual going into this season.  Hoping we all enjoy the ride...

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