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TOPIC: NET rankings

NET rankings 2 months 3 weeks ago #305277

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As you may know, the NCAA released their first NET ratings a few days ago. They have received a lot of criticism, however the system could work in our favor.

There is something pretty interesting with the (partially) secret formula- it appears to only marginally take into account level of opponent. Instead, it focuses a lot more on whether you win/lose and by what margin- regardless of what team you played.

Obviously, given our weak OOC.... this could actually be beneficial.

Take, for example, last night:
www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/...ketball-net-rankings

SJU is now #18, up from #32 yesterday. I was surprised to see that, because we beat a horrible opponent (#340 UMES) at home. With RPI the opposite happened and we dropped from #4 to #15 because our opponent was so bad. I noticed yesterday too that other undefeated teams with weak schedules (such as NC State/Pitt) were extremely overvalued in NET compared to other rankings. To me and a lot of others, the system seems flawed in this regard.

The best part about this is we already played the tougher half of our OOC schedule. If we can eat up cupcakes during December without dropping in the rankings (like what will happen with RPI), that'd be pretty amazing.

Now, to be honest it wouldn't surprise me if the NCAA adjusted the numbers to more heavily weigh in level of opponent. They are keeping some parts of the formula a secret, so they could change it gradually and we wouldn't notice. At least for now though, things may be looking up.
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Last edit: by Adam.

NET rankings 2 months 3 weeks ago #305494

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NET rankings 2 months 3 weeks ago #305495

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FWIW, we are #20.

Georgia Tech is #103.
Karl der Grosse: "Right action is better than knowledge; but in order to do what is right, we must know what is right." FYI, map to the left is the Carolingian Empire at its height.

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NET rankings 2 months 3 weeks ago #305500

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I don't pretend to know the details of how these rankings are derived (and it's my understanding some of it is kept private) but any system that has Belmont & San Francisco ranked ahead of Kansas clearly needs a lot of work.
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NET rankings 2 months 3 weeks ago #305501

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NCJohnnie wrote: I don't pretend to know the details of how these rankings are derived (and it's my understanding some of it is kept private) but any system that has Belmont & San Francisco ranked ahead of Kansas clearly needs a lot work.


Unless we're ranking race tracks or seafood cities...

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NET rankings 2 months 3 weeks ago #305502

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Adam wrote: As you may know, the NCAA released their first NET ratings a few days ago. They have received a lot of criticism, however the system could work in our favor.

There is something pretty interesting with the (partially) secret formula- it appears to only marginally take into account level of opponent. Instead, it focuses a lot more on whether you win/lose and by what margin- regardless of what team you played.

Obviously, given our weak OOC.... this could actually be beneficial.

Take, for example, last night:
www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/...ketball-net-rankings

SJU is now #18, up from #32 yesterday. I was surprised to see that, because we beat a horrible opponent (#340 UMES) at home. With RPI the opposite happened and we dropped from #4 to #15 because our opponent was so bad. I noticed yesterday too that other undefeated teams with weak schedules (such as NC State/Pitt) were extremely overvalued in NET compared to other rankings. To me and a lot of others, the system seems flawed in this regard.

The best part about this is we already played the tougher half of our OOC schedule. If we can eat up cupcakes during December without dropping in the rankings (like what will happen with RPI), that'd be pretty amazing.

Now, to be honest it wouldn't surprise me if the NCAA adjusted the numbers to more heavily weigh in level of opponent. They are keeping some parts of the formula a secret, so they could change it gradually and we wouldn't notice. At least for now though, things may be looking up.


The NET does seem very flawed for the reasons you mentioned. Without even delving into the #s it's obvious that beating weaker teams is handsomely rewarded. This metric will be extremely kind to us for the OOC. For the conference portion, it may work against us and the entire conference. A solid tournament team could easily only go 10-8 or 9-9 in this Big East.

This metric might open the door to teams in lower top-heavy conference and hurt multi-bid conferences.

In any event, whoever puts our schedule together needs props. Back to back extremely impressive jobs. It's starting to feel like it isn't just luck or coincidence.

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NET rankings 2 months 3 weeks ago #305504

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wonder if this will create a swing in strategy for teams for OOC scheduling next year.

probably not since it seems NCAA can tweak algorithms since it's not revealed and it may change for next year.

Still makes sense to play some cupcakes but also test yourself against equal or better vs. heavy on the easy games

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NET rankings 2 months 3 weeks ago #305517

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Marillac wrote:

Adam wrote: As you may know, the NCAA released their first NET ratings a few days ago. They have received a lot of criticism, however the system could work in our favor.

There is something pretty interesting with the (partially) secret formula- it appears to only marginally take into account level of opponent. Instead, it focuses a lot more on whether you win/lose and by what margin- regardless of what team you played.

Obviously, given our weak OOC.... this could actually be beneficial.

Take, for example, last night:
www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/...ketball-net-rankings

SJU is now #18, up from #32 yesterday. I was surprised to see that, because we beat a horrible opponent (#340 UMES) at home. With RPI the opposite happened and we dropped from #4 to #15 because our opponent was so bad. I noticed yesterday too that other undefeated teams with weak schedules (such as NC State/Pitt) were extremely overvalued in NET compared to other rankings. To me and a lot of others, the system seems flawed in this regard.

The best part about this is we already played the tougher half of our OOC schedule. If we can eat up cupcakes during December without dropping in the rankings (like what will happen with RPI), that'd be pretty amazing.

Now, to be honest it wouldn't surprise me if the NCAA adjusted the numbers to more heavily weigh in level of opponent. They are keeping some parts of the formula a secret, so they could change it gradually and we wouldn't notice. At least for now though, things may be looking up.


The NET does seem very flawed for the reasons you mentioned. Without even delving into the #s it's obvious that beating weaker teams is handsomely rewarded. This metric will be extremely kind to us for the OOC. For the conference portion, it may work against us and the entire conference. A solid tournament team could easily only go 10-8 or 9-9 in this Big East.

This metric might open the door to teams in lower top-heavy conference and hurt multi-bid conferences.

In any event, whoever puts our schedule together needs props. Back to back extremely impressive jobs. It's starting to feel like it isn't just luck or coincidence.


Let's see how it ends up at the end of the year. These preliminary numbers are interesting to look at, but we've already been told the NCAA will use other metrics along with the NET ranking.
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NET rankings 2 months 3 weeks ago #305518

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Early season RPI rankings were always questionable as well. Both teams in question are undefeated. Once they lose it'll change.
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NET rankings 2 months 3 weeks ago #305519

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Rutgers up 8 early vs MSU. If Rutgers is decent would be huge for our OOC. They just need to be top 75 for the win to qualify as T1.

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